The 2013 Salmon Forecast!


After watching the numbers for a number of years (never mind how many…) I’ve found that you can “call some shots” by digging into the forecast numbers. The WDFW, DFO Canada and The PFMC (Pacific Fisheries Management Council) work very hard to get their chinook and coho abundance estimates out in a timely manner. These figures take some pouring through to find the real “meat” but don’t worry, I’ve done all the leg work for you right here!

2013 Preseason Adult Chinook Forecasts

  • Willapa Bay Fall Run: 271,000
  • Hoh River Fall Run: 3,100
  • Nooksack River/Samish River Summer Run: 46,500
  • Skagit River Summer Run: 13,200
  • Stillaguamish River: 1,300
  • Snohomish River Wild:3,600
  • Snohomish River Hatchchery: 6,800
  • Tulalip Bay: 10,900
  • South Puget Sound Wild: 5,200
  • South Puget Sound Hatchery: 101,900
  • Hood Canal Wild: 3,300
  • Hood Canal Hatchery: 65,700

This is a very significant Puget Sound chinook forecast to say the least! Easily the highest number we’ve seen for a decade and a half. We can be fairly safe in the assumption that chinook seasons may be similar to last year. Generally these selected stocks are up from 2012, most notably in the Skagit, Snohomish, Tulalip Bay and south Sound. However, on the coast Willapa is down sharply and the Nooksack/Samish checks in with a solid forecast as well which should drive a very strong Marine Area 7 summer chinook season.

The Silver Story! 2013 Preseason Adult Coho Forecasts

  • Straits Wild:14,800
  • Straits Hatchery: 15,400
  • Nooksack River/Samish River Wild:45,400
  • Nooksack River/Samish Hatchery: 49,200
  • Skagit River Wild: 137,200
  • Skagit River Hatchery: 16,300
  • Stillaguamish River Wild: 33,100
  • Stillaguamish River: 3,100
  • Snohomish River Wild: 163,800
  • Snohomish River Hatchery: 109,000
  • South Puget Sound Wild: 36,000
  • South Puget Sound Hatchery: 150,900
  • Hoods Canal Wild: 36,800
  • Hoods Canal Hatchery: 68,600

While slightly down overall, we should still see a smokin’ coho opportunity in the Sound. The increase in Skagit stocks is almost double last year’s run and a look at the Snohomish numbers have me thinking that 2013 will not make many anglers stray far from Puget Sound come September! In fact, the overall feeling among fisheries managers is one of optimism bone of increasing oceanic salmonid survival.

Speaking of survival…. We can look for over 6 million pink salmon to stream into Puget Sound this summer as well!!! We’ll have a better breakdown of the “Humpy Hordes” coming to you in this blog in the very near future!

Keep in mind that these numbers are but the “raw material” that the co-managers will use to craft our local seasons and only by attending the North of Falcon meetings can you have an impact on the process. We will keep you posted here but I sincerely look forward to meeting some of you….at the meetings!!!

Thanks to Tom Nelson of the “Ouutdoor Line” for the information!